AFCON 2027 Qualifiers: Standings And Analysis After Matchday 2

Two matchdays into qualifying for AFCON 2027, the early story is not the favourites but the upstarts. Guinea-Bissau, The Gambia and Rwanda have six points each, while Nigeria and Ghana are already chasing.

The 2027 Africa Cup of Nations will run from 19 June to 17 July 2027 in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. It is the first time three countries have co-hosted the tournament, and it marks AFCON's return to East Africa for the first time since 1976. CAF has branded it PAMOJA, the Swahili word for "together".

Forty-eight nations began the group stage on 24 September 2026. By the end of 29 September, 42 of them had played twice. Three fixtures remain in this window: Eritrea v South Africa (30 September), Guinea v Kenya (1 October) and Angola v Malawi (6 October).

How qualifying works

Twenty-four places are on offer. Under the AFCON 2027 qualifying format confirmed at the Cairo draw, the top two in each of the 12 groups go through. The exception is the three groups that contain a co-host. Kenya (Group D), Uganda (Group H) and Tanzania (Group L) qualify automatically, so only the best-placed other team in each of those groups joins them.

That quirk matters. In Groups D, H and L, finishing second behind the host is not enough; a team must finish above every other non-host side. Each team plays six matches, home and away, across three FIFA windows:

• Matchdays 1–2: 21 September to 6 October 2026
• Matchdays 3–4: 9 to 17 November 2026
• Matchdays 5–6: 22 to 30 March 2027

Group-by-group state of play

Morocco, Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, The Gambia, Rwanda, Mali and Guinea-Bissau all have a perfect six points. The points below are compiled from the Matchday 1 results and Tuesday's Matchday 2 results. Group D and Angola v Malawi are a game behind.

• Group A: Morocco 6, Gabon 3, Niger 3, Lesotho 0. Morocco have won both games without conceding; Gabon's 2-0 win over Niger opened up the race for second.
• Group B: Egypt 4, Malawi 3, Angola 1, South Sudan 0. A 5-0 win in Juba made up for Egypt's opening 0-0 with Angola. Malawi have a game in hand.
• Group C: Côte d'Ivoire 6, The Gambia 6, Somalia 0, Ghana 0. Ghana lost both games, including a 4-2 home defeat by The Gambia after leading 2-0, and are six points off second.
• Group D (one spot only): South Africa 3, Eritrea 1, Guinea 0; co-hosts Kenya 1. South Africa's 2-1 win over Guinea counts double, as it came against their main rival.
• Group E: DR Congo 6, Zimbabwe 3, Equatorial Guinea 3, Sierra Leone 0. DR Congo won 2-1 in Harare to take command before the two sides below them meet.
• Group F: Burkina Faso 4, Benin 4, Mauritania 3, Central African Republic 0. This is the tightest group, with three sides within a point after Benin beat Mauritania 2-1.
• Group G: Cameroon 4, Namibia 3, Comoros 3, Congo 1. Cameroon were held 1-1 in Congo, so no one has broken clear.
• Group H (one spot only): Tunisia 2, Botswana 2, Libya 1; co-hosts Uganda 4. Tunisia have drawn both games and sit level with Botswana, making this the most open host group.
• Group I: Algeria 4, Zambia 3, Togo 3, Burundi 1. Algeria came from 2-0 down to draw in Burundi, and Zambia's 2-0 win over Togo keeps three teams close.
• Group J: Mozambique 4, Senegal 4, Sudan 3, Ethiopia 0. Mozambique drew in Senegal, then beat Sudan 4-1; Senegal won in Ethiopia to steady themselves.
• Group K: Rwanda 6, Mali 6, Cape Verde 0, Liberia 0. Rwanda's 2-1 win in Cape Verde leaves the islanders six points behind the top two.
• Group L (one spot only): Guinea-Bissau 6, Nigeria 3, Madagascar 1; co-hosts Tanzania 1. Guinea-Bissau beat Nigeria 3-0, won 2-0 in Tanzania and lead by three points.

The storylines that matter

Nigeria: a three-point hole in a one-spot group

Nigeria's week turned in four days. On 25 September the Super Eagles came from behind to beat Madagascar 2-1. George Ilenikhena equalised in first-half stoppage time and substitute Moses Usor scored the winner. On 29 September they lost 3-0 to Guinea-Bissau in Bissau, with goals from Franculino, Mama Baldé and a stoppage-time strike from Álvaro Djaló. They were without Victor Osimhen, who was ruled out of both games with a muscle injury.

The arithmetic is unforgiving. Because Tanzania are co-hosts, only one of Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar will qualify from Group L. Guinea-Bissau have six points and have not conceded. Nigeria now need to outscore them over four games, and a 3-0 head-to-head deficit could decide a tie on points. According to Nigeria's full qualifying schedule, the November double-header against Tanzania comes before Nigeria host Guinea-Bissau on the final matchday in March. Those Tanzania games are effectively must-win.

Ghana's familiar slide

Ghana have lost both games: 2-0 in Côte d'Ivoire and 4-2 at home to The Gambia. They led The Gambia 2-0 after 33 minutes through Ernest Nuamah and Felix Afena-Gyan, then conceded four, two of them to Ebrima Colley. Six points behind two unbeaten sides, the Black Stars risk missing the finals again, as they did in 2025.

Giants who recovered, and new coaches

Egypt followed a goalless home draw with Angola by winning 5-0 in South Sudan, with Omar Marmoush scoring twice. Senegal, under Patrick Vieira, drew 1-1 with Mozambique before winning 1-0 in Ethiopia. Côte d'Ivoire began Hervé Renard's second spell with two clean-sheet wins. Pitso Mosimane's third spell with South Africa started with a 2-1 win over Guinea.

The surprise packages

The Gambia, Rwanda and Guinea-Bissau are the stories of the window. Rwanda came from behind in Cape Verde, a 2023 quarter-finalist, to make it six points from six. Co-hosts Uganda, already qualified, are unbeaten after a 1-1 draw in Tunisia and a 1-0 win over Libya.

Insight: what the next matchdays decide

The host-group rule is the hidden story of this campaign. In Groups D, H and L, one bad night costs far more than elsewhere, because second place is worth nothing. That is why Guinea-Bissau's two wins, and South Africa's victory over Guinea, already look decisive.

Three things to watch:

1. The rest of Group D this week. Eritrea v South Africa and Guinea v Kenya will show whether Bafana Bafana can open a gap, or whether Guinea, with Serhou Guirassy, drag the race back.
2. November's double-headers. Nigeria play Tanzania twice. Ghana face Somalia twice and need six points. Côte d'Ivoire meet The Gambia home and away at the top of Group C. By 17 November, several groups could be close to settled.
3. Head-to-head records. Most groups are separated by a point or two, so results between direct rivals will count heavily if teams finish level.

The early signal is clear: reputation is no guarantee of a ticket to East Africa. Nigeria and Ghana have four games to put that right.