The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping is tracking for a US opening weekend of at least $60 million, with rival studios predicting that the figure could rise above $70 million.
Lionsgate boosted ticket sales at the start of the summer season with Michael, which took $97.2 million in the US and $218.8 million around the world, and the studio now looks set to do the same for the Thanksgiving period.
Box-office analysts are now monitoring The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, the much-awaited prequel, which is projected to take no less than $60 million in the US over its opening. Competing studios, however, reckon the figure could climb well beyond that, possibly passing $70 million across the first three days.
Francis Lawrence, the filmmaker behind earlier instalments of the Hunger Games series, is in the director's chair, and the film is due in cinemas on November 20.
A debut of that scale would count as a strong start for a franchise on its sixth film. It would also beat the launch of the last entry, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, which took $44.6 million in its first weekend in the US, then climbed to $166.3 million in total ticket sales within the US and Canada and $394 million across the globe.
Its predecessor drew on a bleaker storyline from Suzanne Collins' book series, tracing how the infamous villain Coriolanus Snow came to be. Sales of that novel were sluggish after it landed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the film itself premiered not long after the 2023 actors' strike was resolved.
Lionsgate hosted the first major Hollywood premiere since the strike to draw celebrity guests. SAG-AFTRA gave the cast a waiver so they could promote the film while the studio operated as an independent company. Even so, buzz around Sunrise on the Reaping appears much greater, with fans already given an event in London and another planned for Los Angeles next week.
The film is also among the most eagerly awaited entries in the series, since it takes viewers back to Panem some 24 years prior to the original The Hunger Games. The action opens as dawn breaks on the day the tributes are drawn for the 50th Hunger Games, which is the Second Quarter Quell.
Joseph Zada takes on the role of a young Haymitch Abernathy, the character Woody Harrelson plays in the earlier films, and Jesse Plemons portrays a younger Plutarch Heavensbee, originally played by Philip Seymour Hoffman. Buzz is also building around reports that Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson, headline names from the original franchise, will turn up too.
Trailer views and audience interest point to a strong opening
The trailer's figures tell the same story. In just one day after release, Sunrise on the Reaping attracted 109 million views, ranking it behind only Michael among Lionsgate trailers for viewership.
Early tracking suggests female audiences are especially keen, though men under 25 are close behind. Interest among women under 25 is notably high, matching the levels seen for Wicked, exceeding those for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and standing almost 40 per cent higher than for The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes.
Overall, first-choice interest in the film is higher than the levels recorded for;
- Wicked ($112.5 million),
- Michael ($97.2 million) and
- The Devil Wears Prada 2 ($76.7 million).
That also puts it level with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($111 million). The franchise's largest domestic opening is still held by Catching Fire in 2013, which launched with $158 million.
Five novels make up the franchise, and together they have sold over 100 million copies around the world and appeared in 52 languages. Across five films, the movie adaptations have earned more than $3.4 billion worldwide.
The novel edition of Sunrise on the Reaping has already sold well, with over 1.5 million units bought across the globe during its opening seven days. That was the strongest launch week of any book in Collins' Hunger Games series. In the US alone, 1.2 million were sold, more than twice what The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes achieved at launch and over triple the debut of Mockingjay.
The film's cast also includes Ralph Fiennes, Glenn Close, Kieran Culkin, Elle Fanning, Mckenna Grace, Maya Hawke, Whitney Peak and Kelvin Harrison Jr.
Domestic ticket sales in North America are on course for a possible $10 billion year, yet Sunrise on the Reaping must contend with two strong Novembers before it. In 2024, the month was lit up by Wicked, Moana 2 and Gladiator II, while last year it was carried by Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2. Equalling what those films achieved is going to be a tall order.
