Africa risks wasting its femographic dividend unless governments invest far more in education and human capital, according to a warning attributed to Ogundipe by Vanguard News. For Nigeria, the femographic dividend Nigeria stands to gain depends on whether girls stay in school and women find productive work, and the World Bank's latest figures show how much ground is still to be covered.
Only the summary of the Vanguard report could be read, so this article draws on the World Bank findings and related research that the argument rests on.
What the World Bank index shows on the femographic dividend Nigeria
The World Bank's 2026 Human Capital Index Plus found that children born in Sub-Saharan Africa today could earn up to 68% more as adults if their health and education matched top performers at similar income levels. That is a large prize for a region where young people make up a growing share of the population, and it frames the femographic dividend Nigeria stands to gain or lose.
The same report puts the region's average score at about 127 on the HCI+ index, well below the global average of 186. In other words, the region is producing workers whose health and skills fall short of what its income levels would allow, which weakens the femographic dividend Nigeria hopes to claim.
Nigeria's own gap
Nigeria scored 33 on the health component of the index. The report says Nigeria and Egypt could each improve by around 70 points by matching the best-performing peers at comparable income levels, a gap that matters for the femographic dividend Nigeria is chasing.
That figure matters for the femographic argument. Healthier girls and women are more likely to complete school, join the workforce and stay in it. A 70-point gap suggests the country is leaving a great deal of that potential unused.
The scale of the workforce to come
The pressure is rising because the numbers are so large. A 2025 World Bank report projects that the sub-region's working-age population will add more than 620 million people to the labour market over the next 25 years.
Those new workers will need jobs, and the jobs will only be as good as the skills behind them. Without investment in health and learning, a bigger workforce can simply mean more people competing for low-paid work.
Schools, teachers and out-of-school children
The schooling picture remains difficult. Enrolment has risen since 2015, but more than 100 million children are still out of school, and the region needs 11 million additional teachers to deliver quality education.
Getting girls into classrooms is only the first step. They also need qualified teachers, safe schools and a realistic chance of using their education afterwards.
Women at work, but in the wrong jobs
Women in the region already work in large numbers. Labour force participation stands at 65% for women aged 15 and above, against 75% for men, among the highest rates globally.
The difficulty lies in where they work. Most new entrants join the informal sector, where productivity and pay are low. High participation therefore does not automatically translate into the economic lift that a dividend implies.
The cost of inequality
The Global Partnership for Education has put a price on the problem. Citing a UNDP Africa report, it says gender inequality cost Sub-Saharan Africa US$104.75 billion in foregone wealth in 2014, a loss of about 6 GDP points for the region.
That estimate is more than a decade old, but it shows the scale of what is at stake when women and girls are held back from learning and productive work.
What happens next
The message from the figures is consistent. A large, young workforce is an opportunity only if people are healthy, educated and able to find work that uses their skills.
For Nigeria, the practical priorities follow from the data:
- Closing the health gap that produced a score of 33 on the HCI+ health component.
- Keeping girls in school and supporting the recruitment of more teachers.
- Moving women from informal, low-productivity work towards jobs with better pay.
The World Bank's figures suggest the window is open but not permanent. With more than 620 million people due to enter the regional labour market over 25 years, the decisions taken on schools, health and women's work in the coming years will largely determine whether the dividend is collected or lost.
